GENEVA / RankWire.AI / – In a recent update, the World Trade Organization has elevated its outlook for global merchandise trade growth in 2026 to 3.9 percent. This marks a significant jump from the 1.9 percent estimate issued in March. The WTO explained that stronger trade figures in the first half of the year, supply chain adjustments, and investments in artificial intelligence contributed to this revised forecast. Despite notable disruptions affecting energy, transport, and fertilizer markets, merchandise trade volume increased by 3.5 percent during the first half of 2026. The organization now anticipates merchandise trade to expand by 4.1 percent in 2027.
Demand driven by artificial intelligence played a key role in merchandise trade growth in the initial months. Goods enabled by AI, such as semiconductors and servers, represented 47 percent of global merchandise trade growth. Trade in these items surged 67 percent compared to the previous year. The WTO also noted that worldwide expenditure on AI infrastructure is expected to grow by at least 30 percent in 2026. The rise in demand for computing hardware supported trade flows, even as other sectors faced setbacks due to conflict and transport challenges.
Across the globe, supply chains adapted to pressures in major commodity and shipping markets. In the Middle East, crude oil exports declined approximately 24 percent during the first half of 2026. Meanwhile, liquefied natural gas exports from the region dropped by 47 percent over the same period. Nevertheless, increased shipments from alternative suppliers limited the overall decline in crude oil exports to roughly 6 percent. Global LNG exports decreased by just 1 percent. Additionally, worldwide container throughput rose by 3.9 percent through July, as trade utilized alternative ports and routes to maintain momentum.
AI-enabled Goods Bolster Global Merchandise Trade
The optimistic outlook for goods contrasts with more subdued expectations for international services trade. The WTO revised its 2026 services trade volume growth forecast downward to 3.3 percent from 4.8 percent in March. Disruptions in the Middle East have intensified pressures on transport and international travel, resulting in a 0.8 percent decline in global tourist arrivals in the second quarter. Over the first half of 2026, international travel growth was only 0.4 percent. Furthermore, growth in travel expenditure slowed sharply between the first and second quarters.
Despite these setbacks, other service sectors demonstrated resilience. Exports of computer services increased by 18 percent in the first quarter compared to the previous year, with second-quarter growth estimated at 12 percent. Financial services exports also grew 14 percent year-on-year in the second quarter. The WTO projects a 6.4 percent increase in commercial services trade volume for 2027. It further forecasts global GDP expansion of 2.6 percent for 2026 and 2.9 percent for the following year.
Trade Expansion Shows Regional Variability
Initial regional merchandise trade projections reveal significant disparities worldwide. The WTO expects Asia to lead with a 9.9 percent increase in merchandise exports in 2026. North America’s exports are forecast to grow by 5.7 percent, with Africa following at 5.6 percent. South America is projected to see 3.4 percent growth, while Europe may experience a slight decline of 0.1 percent. The Middle East faces the steepest contraction, with exports expected to fall by 17.2 percent during the year.
Looking at imports, the latest WTO forecast indicates sharp regional differences. Asia is anticipated to register 9.5 percent growth in merchandise imports, and Africa is projected at 8.9 percent. North America’s imports are expected to rise by 1.4 percent, whereas Europe’s are forecast to increase by 0.5 percent. The Middle East is set to see imports drop by 15.4 percent. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala highlighted that these figures demonstrate the resilience of trade while also exposing varying levels of vulnerability to economic and geopolitical shocks.