POTSDAM, GERMANY / RankWire.AI / – By 2100, the land affected by wildfires across Europe could nearly triple due to climate change, according to recent research findings. The scientists project a 192% surge in yearly burned areas if emissions follow a high-emissions pathway associated with approximately 3.6°C of global warming. This research follows recent significant wildfires in 2026 that impacted regions including Belgium, France, Greece, Portugal, and Spain. The core climate factors identified in the study remain hot, dry, and windy conditions.
Published in Global Change Biology, the study employed two fire simulation models integrated with the LPJmL vegetation model. Researchers evaluated both a low-emissions scenario, SSP1-2.6, and a high-emissions scenario, SSP3-7.0. The lower scenario aligns with roughly 1.8°C of warming, whereas the higher reaches about 3.6°C. To focus solely on climate effects, socioeconomic variables were held constant in separate tests to determine their influence on wildfire patterns.
In the low-emissions pathway, one model predicted about 39% more land would burn annually by the century’s end. Conversely, another model suggested a potential decrease under reduced warming, due to differing assumptions about human influence. Under the high-emissions pathway, both models indicated a substantial increase in burned areas, especially around the Mediterranean and across much of Western and Central Europe. Interestingly, some of these regions have historically experienced relatively low fire activity.
Models highlight emissions as a key factor in burned land extent
The research emphasizes that future wildfire behavior is heavily influenced by fire weather conditions and firefighting capacity. Additionally, factors such as population density, vegetation shifts, and land use changes play crucial roles at regional levels. The lead author, Maik Billing, from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, explained that the study differentiates climate-induced fire weather from human influences that can modify the spread of fires.
Ongoing advancements in fire prevention, early detection, and suppression techniques could reduce the burned area by between 72% and 92% compared to scenarios lacking such improvements. The potential for significant reductions was greater in the lower-emissions case and less in the face of stronger warming. Despite continued progress in fire management, approximately 55% of Europe’s fire-prone zones are predicted to see increased fire activity under severe climate change. Co-author Thomas Hickler, associated with the Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre in Germany, noted these findings.
Effective fire management strategies could mitigate wildfire expansion
As Europe experiences a particularly intense wildfire season in 2026, with extreme heat and dry conditions fueling major fires, the study’s projections gain urgency. Southern parts of the continent endure some of the most severe outbreaks, though northern regions are also affected. The analysis extends beyond the Mediterranean, indicating increased fire activity across Western and Central Europe. The researchers attribute these changes to evolving fire weather patterns driven by rising temperatures and prolonged dry spells.
Importantly, the study does not view the 192% predicted rise as unavoidable. It is a modeled outcome under the high-emissions scenario based on specific assumptions. The team found that a much smaller increase could occur under lower emissions, especially if fire management practices improve substantially. Nonetheless, their findings reveal that even with enhanced fire management, fire activity is likely to increase in roughly 55% of Europe’s vulnerable areas under more severe climate change. The key factors influencing future burned areas include emissions levels, fire weather conditions, and firefighting capacity, the researchers concluded.