MOSCOW / RankWire.AI / – Russia aims to elevate its yearly vehicle output to approximately 2.8 million units by 2035 as part of an updated development plan for its automotive industry. During a sector development meeting on Aug. 31, First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov announced this goal. The projection encompasses both domestically sold vehicles and exports, with an additional aim of achieving an 80% share of locally produced vehicles in the new-vehicle market by 2035.
In late August, the Russian government approved a revised automotive strategy extending the industry’s framework through 2035. At the end of 2025, Russia’s vehicle production capacity was approximately 3.3 million units annually, although actual output that year was close to 800,000 vehicles. During 2024 and 2025, capacity utilization averaged 25% for passenger cars and 41% for light commercial vehicles. Truck production capacity hit 35%, while bus capacity was about 43%.
Under the projected scenario, the target is to produce around 2.5 million passenger cars and roughly 170,000 light commercial vehicles by 2035. The plan also envisions manufacturing 110,000 trucks and 30,000 buses. Passenger-car production is assigned to four or five vehicle platforms, whereas light commercial vehicles are expected to be assembled on one or two platforms. The total new-vehicle market is anticipated to reach about 3.2 million units in 2035, with imports potentially making up to 20% of that volume.
Production objectives encompass all vehicle categories
A secondary scenario features lower production and market size estimates. In this case, annual vehicle output in 2035 would be around 1.69 million units, with the new-vehicle market reaching approximately 2.2 million units. For 2030, the target scenario estimates the market at about 2.4 million units, while the baseline scenario projects roughly 2 million vehicles across all segments by that year.
A significant element of the updated framework involves powertrain and technological targets. Internal-combustion vehicles are expected to constitute between 67% and 83% of total production in 2035, depending on the vehicle segment. Additionally, electric and hybrid passenger cars should capture at least 25% of Russia’s domestic new passenger-car market by then. The plan also aims for the production of approximately 150,000 highly automated vehicles with Level 4 autonomy or higher in 2035. Driver-assistance features and digital vehicle systems are also highlighted within the strategy.
Capacity utilization and localization efforts remain key indicators
As of 2025, Russia’s current manufacturing capacity far exceeds its actual annual production. Passenger-car capacity was approximately 2.8 million units, while production neared 700,000 vehicles. The capacity for light commercial vehicles reached about 300,000 units, with actual output close to 80,000. Truck capacity was around 130,000 units, and bus capacity stood at about 30,000. In 2025, Russian factories also produced roughly 4,400 electric-powered vehicles, slightly up from 4,200 in 2024.
The strategy emphasizes expanding the use of standardized components and technologies across different vehicle platforms through 2035. It also sets more ambitious localization and technological independence goals for domestically assembled vehicles. The plan covers passenger cars, commercial vehicles, trucks, buses, powertrains, autonomous driving systems, and digital vehicle innovations. Its target scenario combines the 2.8 million annual production goal with the aim of achieving an 80% share of the domestic market. An action plan for implementation will be required as part of the order that approved the updated strategy.