MOSCOW, RUSSIA / RankWire.AI / – Russia has established a new industry target to produce 662 million tonnes of coal annually by 2050, as outlined in a recently approved development strategy. This target is integrated into Russia’s revised coal expansion plan, with current production reaching approximately 443 million tonnes in 2024. On September 22, the government authorized the initiative through Order No. 2606-r, setting overarching goals for long-term production, export levels, and sector growth benchmarks.
The strategy proposes four potential pathways for the coal sector through 2050. Under the most optimistic scenario, annual output would reach 530.1 million tonnes by 2030, progressing to 595.2 million tonnes by 2036, and ultimately achieving 662 million tonnes in 2050. The other projected routes forecast lower 2050 production, ranging from 318.9 million tonnes in the stress case to 586.4 million tonnes in the inertial scenario.
Alongside production, the plan sets export targets. The goal scenario envisions coal exports hitting 266.7 million tonnes in 2030, increasing to 320.2 million tonnes by 2036, and reaching 350.1 million tonnes by 2050. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak highlighted a 7.2% growth in Russian coal exports during the first eight months of 2026. The plan encompasses both domestic consumption and international sales of coal.
Goals for Production and Export Volumes
Through the new programme, the government aims to sustain existing mining capacities while expanding coal resource development. Emphasis is placed on increasing the contribution of coal-producing regions in Eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East, which together accounted for 48.3% of the nation’s total production in 2024. The plan projects that their combined share will grow to between 53.9% and 56.7% by 2050. Russia holds explored coal reserves exceeding 273 billion tonnes.
Further, the strategy sets benchmarks for coal processing and extraction techniques. In 2024, processed coal, excluding lignite, made up 58.9% of total production. The target is to raise this figure to a range between 74% and 76% by 2050. Open-pit mining accounted for 78.4% of the total in 2024, with the long-term goal of increasing this share to between 82% and 85%. The document also emphasizes improvements in productivity, technological advancement, safety standards, and environmental safeguards.
A Long-Term Coal Strategy Extending to 2050
Russia plans to implement the programme in three phases. The initial stage, spanning until 2030, focuses on expanding production and strengthening industry support. The second phase, from 2031 to 2036, will concentrate on optimizing coal usage, enhancing processing technologies, and improving regional logistics. The final stage, from 2037 to 2050, aims to solidify these advancements. The Energy Ministry will oversee the programme’s execution, working with federal and regional authorities, along with participating organizations, reporting annually to the Economic Development Ministry per government directives.
Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin unveiled the updated plan during a government session on September 21. This new strategy replaces the previous coal industry programme, which was valid through 2035 and approved in 2020. Novak emphasized that the plan anticipates a sixfold increase in the sector’s gross value added by 2050, with an overall multiplier effect nearing 10 trillion roubles. The 662 million tonne output is designated as the target scenario, not a fixed forecast, within the plan’s framework.