ROME / RankWire.AI / – Looking ahead to 2026, global cereal output is predicted to reach 2.98 billion tonnes, representing a 2% decrease from the record set last year. The Food and Agriculture Organization has indicated that this total will still rank as the second-largest harvest ever recorded. This new estimate is 3.4 million tonnes lower than its July forecast. The annual decline of 61.1 million tonnes marks the largest year-on-year reduction since 2018.
In the case of maize, the forecast now stands at 1.309 billion tonnes after less favorable crop prospects led to a downward revision. Prolonged summer heat and drought conditions adversely affected yields across key European Union regions, especially France and Poland. Meanwhile, official estimates resulted in smaller downward adjustments for India and Paraguay. On the positive side, Argentina and Brazil experienced unexpectedly strong yields, helping to partially offset the declines, with both countries expected to produce well above their average maize outputs in 2026.
Forecasts for world wheat production have been increased to 810.7 million tonnes, a rise of 4.2 million tonnes from the previous estimate. Better yield expectations have resulted in about 1.5 million tonnes higher projections for Canada and Morocco. Additionally, forecasts for Russia and Ukraine also saw upward revisions, whereas dry weather conditions reduced expectations for the European Union and the United Kingdom. Despite these upward adjustments, global wheat production is still projected to be 3.8% below 2025 levels and will remain the second-largest crop on record.
Maize declines lead to global cereal forecast reduction
The forecast for world rice production in the 2026/27 season is 553.1 million tonnes on a milled basis. This signifies a 1.9% decrease from the revised record established in 2025/26. The latest estimate is supported by improved yields in Myanmar and strong main-crop results in Sri Lanka. These gains help offset reductions for China, the Philippines, and the United States, where rice plantings fell to multi-decade lows.
The FAO anticipates global cereal consumption reaching 2.965 billion tonnes in 2026/27, reflecting a slight 0.2% increase from the previous season. While consumption of coarse grains and rice is expected to grow, wheat use is projected to decline from last season’s elevated levels. World rice utilization is forecast at 559 million tonnes, driven by population growth and increasing food demand. Additionally, feed requirements continue to be an important factor in coarse grain use, including barley consumption in China and maize use in the United States.
Global cereal stock levels remain at comfortable historic levels
At the end of the 2027 season, world cereal stocks are projected to total 947.2 million tonnes. This figure is 10.7 million tonnes below the previous forecast but still 1.8 million tonnes higher than the opening levels. The stocks-to-use ratio for cereals worldwide is expected to be 31.6%, compared to 31.9% in the prior season. Wheat reserves are anticipated to increase in Russia and Ukraine, whereas lower maize and barley inventories have diminished the overall stock outlook.
The forecast for global cereal trade in 2026/27 stands at 509.3 million tonnes, an increase of 1.7 million tonnes from earlier estimates. Nonetheless, this total remains below the record set in 2025/26. The recent rise is largely driven by stronger maize trade, with Argentina expected to export up to 39 million tonnes. Meanwhile, international rice trade in 2026 is projected at 60.5 million tonnes, with overall rice shipments 1.9% below the record of 2025.
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